Musings on the Future of Media & Communications

I fondly remember how in 2008 I was urging companies and departments to start using social media as another "touch point" with their target audiences. I recall thinking that very soon, all companies will have Twitter and Facebook accounts (at least) and that, shortly thereafter, we would start seeing ads with companies asking viewers to Like their page or follow them on Twitter. And low and behold, just 6 months later, it started happening on a larger scale in the private sector, but took about two years to catch on in the government. 

My other prediction from 2009 was that online advertising spending was going to grow dramatically. At the time I had just begun working in government advertising, and it was just below 9% of total media buys. Right now it's closer to 25%, and still not in line with either what the private sector portions are, nor with the percentage of time spent by Canadians on digital...but that's a whole other blog post :).

So I may be able to argue that I am mildly capable of predicting the future in my industry by about 6 months to a year in advance of the "tidal wave" of change. But my predictions in this post are of a more lofty nature, as some of them will fully "hit" up to a 10-15 years from now, once the current major consumer generation is almost fully replaced by the younger, digital generation. As an example, my son's generation - the one that's never watched TV on TV or listened to anything but streamed online radio and read their morning news on a mobile device.

And so, here are my media predictions (or the predictions of many others, which I agree with):

1. Death of Newspapers/Magazines - dying, dying, dead. (And sooner than most people are expecting)
2. Death of Traditional Radio/TV - traditional formats won't die as quickly as the papers, but soon. It's already begun, with the pressure to "unbundle" advertising, and with advertising dollars moving to digital ads, and giving people what they want: a la carte tv instead of paying for hundreds of channels few want to watch. Furthermore, there are already successful shows on Netflix that have never been aired on TV, and this is only going to grow. With respect to radio, it's easier to produce high quality programming for digital streaming radio online and on mobile, so traditional radio will die off even faster than TV.
3. Death of Mobile Apps - once HTML5 evolves and is adopted across the web, it will allow the web to responsively (see Responsive Web Design) look like a native mobile app on mobile devices, then why would people take the extra steps of downloading and installing apps?
4. Death of the Desktop/Laptop/Mouse - as people move to lighter more and more powerful portable tablets with touch screen technology (and an portable keyboard if you so desire!), clunky desktops, laptops and mice will become a thing of the past.
5. Facebook or Google Consumes the Web - not quite sure which will win the "war for online time spend" but it's between these two. Facebook is taking the "walled garden" approach, while google seems to like things a bit more open so that it can index them all in its search engine. But with Facebook's social graph, which will become the bigger, or most valuable search engine?
6. Advertising goes even more social - yes, ads you see online are already becoming very targeted, but this will increase to the point where every single user can see their own individualized ad at the exact time when they have expressed interest in a product either by their social media activity or their online search activity. Right now this can be "escaped" by clearing one's cookies from one's browser, but this will become less and less possible to do easily. Unless you want to get into using proxies, but again, once the user becomes advanced enough to use this, the advertisers will find another way of making you "opt in" if you want to view the valuable content they offer, there is no escape!

That's all for today folks, but do let me know which of my predictions you agree with, and more importantly, how soon do you think these things will happen? A decade for some, a few years for others? If these things had a Facebook Timeline, what would it look like? :)

What I'm thinking about in Marketing Communications this year

I read Marketing Magazine, AdAge and many other marketing related blogs and sites on a daily basis. So it got me thinking, what are the top ideas floating around in my head as a result, and how can I offer this up as guidance to my clients in the work that I do? Here, in a nutshell, is what I'm focusing on right now:

• To continue to shift from “pushing” their messages out to audiences to “pulling” them in with relevant, engaging content.
• To avoid doing exhibits, publications and websites simply because "it's what we did last year"
• To focus on research and metrics/evaluation of past marketing efforts as a basis for re-aligning and improving future efforts
• To resist spending on "one-off" marketing activities and instead focus on developing a marketing plan as early as possible in the program/product life cycle and shift resources to the best tactics to reach marketing objectives
• To stay current on developments in social media, mobile marketing and web analytics in order to be able to provide informed advice to clients in these areas
• In a time of fiscal restraint, to develop relevant partnerships and collaborations with industry, media and other stakeholders to maximize unpaid distribution channels

It's always good to have objectives in your head, but writing them down certainly helps with your follow-through.

Social Media keeps me "plugged in" while on mat leave

I'd like to take this moment to thank Social Media (namely Twitter, Linkedin and Facebook) for keeping me "plugged in" to the work world (while on maternity leave) by allowing me to keep up with co worker's discussions online. It's great, and I can even weigh in when I get a minute away from my newborn (although that doesn't happen often!).

Not to say that I don't love being with the little munchkin, but taking care of baby 24/7 can sometimes feel monotonous and make me feel like I'm out of touch with what's going on out there in the world. SoMe not only lets me keep up with news (work related and global), but also lets get some of the gossip - who moved to what job, which department has new social media accounts, twitterwalls at events I'm unable to make it out to (*sigh*). I can't help but wonder what my maternity leave would have been like without social media! It definitely keeps me sane.

Oh, and thanks to all my wonderful colleagues for filling me in on all the gossip (you know who you are :)

Having a baby got me thinking about social media accounts

I'm expecting my first child at the end of the month. I was thinking about whether to start reserving social media accounts for him, as I can see that unlike my name (Unique in all the world according to Google: http://bit.ly/a7Q5Ol) there are at least 4 other Leo or Leonardo Alas' out there (according to Facebook http://www.facebook.com/directory/people/B110603-3756477-3756480). And that's fine on Facebook, but on Twitter/YouTube/Blogspot and other sites that do not allow for username duplicates, it would make sense to reserve now, right? Wrong. I started thinking that 13 years from now (several lifetimes in the Internet world), when little Leo is old enough to start using some of these accounts, there is a good chance that the "Social Media Landscape" will be completely different and perhaps the tools will no longer exist as they do today... and, the race to reserve your name would probably repeat itself. Or, perhaps there will be some other sign-on method that I can't think of/imagine yet.

Well, for now I've only reserved @babyLissansky so I can refer to him on Twitter :)

Thoughts on Clay Shirky's Book: 'Here Comes Everybody'

The main premise of the book is that the emerging social tools (social networks, forums, blogs, wikis, etc.) have significantly driven down the transactional costs of any group to organize themselves. This results in many "failed" attempts, but the good ones naturally rise in popularity and lend themselves to longevity and community (or political/activist) value.

Here are some of the key passages that stood out for me:

"It's Not How Many People You Know, It's How Many Kinds
...The essence of Burt's [Ronald Burt of the University of Chicago) thesis comes down to a linked pair of observations. First, most good ideas come from people whose immediate social network included employees outside their department. Second, bridging these structural holes was valuable even when other variables, such as rank and age (both of which correlate for higher degrees of social connection), were controlled for. ...this experiment was a test for bridging capital, not mere sociability - the highest percentage of good ideas came from people whose contacts were outside their own department. On the other hand, managers who were highly connected, but only to others in their department, had ideas that were not ranked as highly. Bridging predicted good ideas, lack of bridging predicted bad ones." p. 229-230

Basically, the above quote emphasizes that in order to generate the best ideas, don't limit "brainstorming" or "feedback" sessions to people in your own work unit or branch. Collaboration and consultation with various kinds of groups of people is essential for capturing the BEST ideas. The underlying message is also that those managers that are most open to and most connected with people from various groups/fields/levels/backgrounds, are in turn the most successful in coming up with good ideas for the organization.

"... a 'fitness landscape' -the idea that for any problem or goal, there is a vast area of possibilities to explore but few valuable spots within that environment to discover. When a company or indeed any organization finds a strategy that works, the drive to adopt it and stick with it is strong. Even if there is a better strategy out there, finding it can be prohibitively expensive. For work that relies on newly collapsed transaction costs, however, providing basic resources to the groups exploring the fitness landscape costs little, and the failure of even a sizable number of groups also carries little penalty. ... [In the book Wikinomics] The mining firm Goldcorp made its proprietary data about a mining site in Ontario public, then challenged outsiders to tell them where to dig next, offering prize money. The participants in the contest suggested more thean a hundred possible sites to explore, many of which had not been mined by Goldcorp and many of which yielded new gold." p. 247

The above quote really emphasizes that the reason sites like Meetup.com are so successful is that they have an inherent tolerance for failure (thousands of groups never even have a single meeting), but eventually, the best groups emerge on their own and usually they are not the types of groups that were predicted to be successful by the founders at the outset. And, at times, the entire purpose of the site may be shifted by users.

Near the end of the book, Shirky goes on to comment on the "revolution" that is happening as a result of the rise of online social tools...

"Anyone inclined to see the good effects of the coming changes can assure a positive value to society simply by deciding to weight the benefits more heavily than the disadvantages, while anyone who believes that the world is going to hell in a hand-basket can support that conclusion by the evidence, simply by deciding that the new bad things are worse than the new good things. The advantages and disadvantages of mass amateurization are a judgment call; people who dislike the current increase in mediocre writing or photos or video can simply declare those things to be worse than any advantages that come from the democratization of production, or from the surprisingly good work that comes from the most talented amateurs. Arguments about whether new forms of sharing or collaboration are, on balance, good or bad reveal more about the speaker than the subject." p. 297

I really enjoyed this book and recommend it to anyone trying to understand social media from a sociological, organizational or managerial perspective.

If you've read the book, feel free to share your thoughts on what stood out for you!

Social Media Tools Demo at Carleton University

Last Friday (January, 15, 2010), I was fortunate enough to be invited by @ThomKearney to present to his 4th year Interactive Multimedia Design (IMD4500) class at Carleton University on the topic of Social Media. Essentially, I was asked to demo the tools I use professionally.

Here are the tools I chose to demo, along with the "show of hands" informal usage survey at the beginning of the demo (out of 25 students present):


• Delicious - 10 (use)
• Google Wave - 10 / 3 (have tried it, use it)
• Google Docs - 22 (use)
• Twitter - 5 (use)
• Linkedin - 3 (use)
• Blogger - 3 (blog)
(Note: these numbers are estimates, based on a quick glance at a show of hands)

I was pleasantly surprised that 22/25 student used Google Docs! I certainly use Google Docs, but not as much as I use Word (given it's the wordprocessing software at work), and it was clear to me that there was no need to demo it. However, now that I think about it, it shouldn't surprise me, since most projects are done collaboratively in groups, Google Docs seems like the most plausible tool.

I began with my Delicious account where I had links to the other tools I was to demo.

Then I went to TweetDeck. Luckily, I had already recruited @bxmx to help out with the Demo. So when I showed @ replies and retweets, it was in a live and interactive conversation with @bxmx (who is based in BC by the way). Twitter went well, many students were curious and had quite a few questions. As always, I tried to emphasize that everyone's Twitter experience is going to be unique because it depends on who you choose to follow - so if you follow celebrities or people who talk about their breakfast, then that is what you'll get.

I then moved on to a Wave demo, and here's where @bxmx came in handy again. He and I tested it a few days before so that we would be able to demonstrate several features all in one wave and fairly quickly. The students were most interested in the "replay" function, so I simply ran through the wave we had prepared. It showed how to embed images, video, maps, and gadgets (such as the "wikify" gadget which turns a term into a link to its Wikipedia page).

Next we moved on to Blogger, and I must say that I was a bit surprised by the fact that only 3 of the students blogged. I proceeded to open my Blogger account and showed them a few unpublished posts in the edit view.

Lastly, I covered Linkedin, where I went to the search window and typed a relevant job title - the students asked me to use "Game Designer", and low and behold, there were thousands of game designers displaying, essentially their entire resumes, for public view on Linkedin. I also showed students a few Linkedin Groups I'm an active member of, such as the Government of Canada group, and a few social media focused groups. They were intrigued, but not necessarily convinced. I then pointed out that many of the senior managers/vps and professors that I can't find on Facebook and Twitter, I am able to find on Linkedin and that the median income on the site is $100K, which says something.

Although in the case of some tools, students seemed skeptical as to their professional value, I think overall, they enjoyed the presentation, and I thoroughly enjoyed presenting too!

At the end, I took a photo of the class and tweeted it, and that if they'd like to see the photos, they should visit Twitter. :)

Tips to promote a GoC Video Contest via Social Media

A fellow Government of Canada (GoC) colleague recently asked me how she can use social media to promote a video contest her department is soon launching. Although I answered her question by commenting on the original post directly, I thought I'd share what I wrote here as well, in case others are facing similar challenges, and to hopefully get some feedback (or more ideas!).

Assumptions:
- the department in question does not have their own official Twitter/Facebook/Linkedin presence
- The video will be hosted on the department's site or on YouTube, or on both (did not specify).
- No budget to spend on advertising (e.g Facebook targeted ads, Youtube home page/masthead and standard box ads etc.)

I am by no means saying that this list of tips is definitive or even complete, but it is based mostly on tactics I have employed and/or have heard of others using, and have basically compiled as many as I could think of.

So, here were the suggestions I had regarding spreading the word (link) for a Video Contest:

Twitter
• Twitter: ask relevant accounts to partner with you by either posting the link on their stream and/or retweeting the one you tweeted. To start, see this Twitter list of GoC accounts: http://twitter.com/Lissansky/canadian-government-accts . Certainly do not limit yourself to GoC accounts, and consider non-federal institutions as well as associations and NGOs. If you're wondering whether this is already being done, the answer is yes! Take a look at Environment Canada's tweets [link to be posted] - they not only tweet their own content, but also point to Provincial government sites and even retweet posts by the public on their own personal blogs - as long as the subject matter pertains to their account's objective.

• Ask other colleagues on Twitter to retweet your post by tagging it #GoC and #gc20 - in some cases if this is not generating enough traction, you can Direct Message (DM) people you know/interact with. Don't hesitate to ask other relevant Twitter accounts to do the same. *Caution -use your discretion in terms of who you think would be responsive, as well as with the frequency of these types of requests.

Note: the person who asked me for these tips does not yet have a departmental Twitter account, hence my emphasis on partnering with existing accounts.

Facebook
• Post the link and a brief description to relevant Facebook Groups/Pages
• See if you can liaise with group admins to send out the info to their members on your behalf (each group has a Facebook messaging list).

Linkedin
• Post a link to the contest on your Linkedin Status and relevant groups don't hesitate asking others to help spread the word

Cross-promote
• Include a link to the contest in your email footer
• Include a web banner /button/feature/link to the contest in prominent places on your department's site
• Use a backlink checking tool to see which sites already link to your department's websites - wherever appropriate, see if they will link to and/or feature your contest

Note: It is important to track all links you post, either by asking your Web Coordinator to create a separate trackable link for each method, and/or by using URL shorteners such as bit.ly (lets you track clicks). This will help you determine which methods/tools are proving more effective. Also, since I have not mentioned this yet, be sure to, wherever possible, post in both official languages.

To help with the above, a good starting point would be to make a list (you probably already have one) of the organizations your department normally partners with (both federal, and other levels as wells as NGOs and perhaps educational institutions) and see who among them also has a social media presence - you may be surprised just how many do.

Think of your social media strategy as a complement to all the other strategies would normally be using (such as email, newsletters, asking partners to link to the contest from their sites etc.). Try stuff, test things out. Learn a few lessons, and improve the next time.

Keep in mind that video is one of the hardest "asks" for user contribution - because it requires a lot more effort than other user generated activities. Furthermore, because the request is coming from the Government of Canada (vs. MTV), there should be fairly "good" prizes/incentives attached to the contest in order to get a lot of entries. I can't comment on the benchmark for number of entries to a government sponsored video contest - but finding one would be recommended.

Hope you found this post helpful. If you think I'm missing some great ideas, feel free to add them in the comments section!